The Ghost of Prospects Past: Pittsburgh Pirates

Let's take a look at how to structure a team coming off a 17th consecutive losing season. Of course, we don't have a lot of data to work with as the Pittsbugh Pirates are the only team in the history of North American professional sports franchises to hold this dubious distinction, so I guess we'll start (and finish) there.

The key seems to be to field as many prospects as possible, not neccesarily rescent prospects but a series of high upside players who haven't been able to break into the big leagues over the past few years. Start with a couple homegrown prospects then mix in a handful of former highly projected youngsters from other organizations.

From the Pirates farm Andrew McCutchen gets his chance to build off a great rookie campaign and Pedro Alvarez looks assured of getting his feet wet at some point later this year.

At this point though, Alvarez is being blocked by another rescent prospect, Andy LaRoche, who came over from the Dodgers in the Jason Bay trade and gets the start at third base to open the season. He showed flashes of promise, that went mostly unnoticed, as the Pirates played out the string last September, but the clock might be ticking on his chance to live up to his former top prospect status.

In the outfield, Lastings Milledge, already on his third team after coming over from the Washington Nationals for Nyjer Morgan, looks like he might finally be ready to deliver on his vast potential, while Jeff Clement now mans first after failing to break the Mariners vaunted lineup as the catcher of the future.

With a couple prospects in the outfield and at both infield corners, the middle of the infield was the last need to be addressed, which was done by bringing in 2004 rookie of the year Bobby Crosby and former Cubs farmhand Ronnie Cedeno, who, while going undrafted, did manage to tear up AAA pitching to the tune of a .350 BA over his last 500+ ABs. However, like the rest of the Pittsburgh prospects, he has yet to translate that success to the major league level.

It's an interesting approach to take to rebuilding a team, finding value in players whose shine has worn off but whose ceilings are still high. At the very least until they've been given a chance to prove the scouts right. And what better place to get that chance then in Pittsburgh, where high upside can hide behind low expectations, and no matter what the outcome, is preferable to consistent mediocrity.

The worry, of course, is in throwing your lot in with players other teams have already determined are essentially, worth throwing away. Seattle obviously thinks highly of Rob Moores' future, but after years in their system they pretty much gave up on Clement. The same thing could be said of LaRoche, a 3rd baseman who has so far failed to show the power neccessary from a corner infielder, Crosby, who has never come close to repeating his 21 homer rookie season, or Milledge, whose reputation for being a problem in the clubhouse, while perhaps unfounded, has so far outwieghed any contribution he's been able to make with the bat.

Either way it's a gamble, but at this point gambling on cheap untapped potential while waiting for your homegrown prospects to be ready to make the jump, seems like a pretty good betting strategy. Of course, it's also the sort of plan that could try the patience of Pirates fans, but after 17 years of failed rebuilding projects what's one more.

The Numbers Game: Seattle Mariners

If you've been paying attention to the pre season prognosticators you may have noticed the hype machine is in overdrive about the potential of this years Seattle Mariners.

People jumping on the Mariners bandwagon have two things to hang their hat on as in the one two punch at the top of the lineup of Ichuro Suziki and Chone Figgens and the one two combo at the front of the rotation in King Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. Formidable stuff indeed, but enough to vault them past the halos?

For a real look at what the future holds for this years club I think there's a much more important set of combos to examine: the 3,4,5 hitters. As in Casey Kotchman (.742 career OPS, 21 homeruns over last 2 seasons) your 3 hitter , Milton Bradley (1 very good season with texas in '08 and a whole lot of mental instability) hitting cleanup and Ken Griffey jr. (he of the .214 average in '09) protecting him in the fifth hole. Yea , you read that right, thats the meat of the order.

But wait, there's more, as in the 3,4,5 starters in the rotation. Thier names are Ryan Rowland-Smith ( 11-7 career win-loss, though a respectable 3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) Ian Snell ( 38-48, 4.71, 1.53) and one of a series of names that at this point looks like Doug Fister (3-4, 4.13, 1.28) yea you read that right too. At this point is there any reason to keep writing?

I will anyway. Keep in mind this is a team that ranked 17th in the league in home runs in '09 with 160, 84 behind the league leading Yankess and 28th in runs scored with 640, an unbelievable 275 behind New York, and decided not to resign their leading home run hitter in Russel Branyan (31 HR) and traded their highest upside pitcher, not named Felix, 2006 top pick Brandon Morrow (5th overall), not for help in the lineup, or in their starting rotation but for help in the bullpen (Brandon League) which was arguably one of last years biggest strengths.

On top of that they traded their top pick from 2007, Phillippe Aumont (11th overall) for one year of Lee, who according to reports had already priced himself out of the Phillies future plans, and their top pick from 2005, Jeff Clement (3rd overall) for Jack Wilson (career .268 AVG, .684 OPS) appearently all with an eye towards....winning it all this year? And for this they are being lauded throughout baseball for their shrewd moves and considered a threat to the Angels and Rangers?

This must be one of those situations where the real value lies somewhere outside the numbers because from where I'm sitting, it obviously dosn't lie within.

Fantasy Q & A

Q: Hey Rob, here are some sleepers, post hypers, and players of personal interest that I have scattered across my draft board. If you feel like taking a few minutes to rattle some rankings up, your opinion would be valued...

Based only on upside, playing situation, and overall talent - how would you rank these 20 options?

A: Allright, I took your 20 names and organized them 1 to 20 with my reasoning down below:

1.heyward--- 6.rasmus--- 11.jennings--- 16.reimold
2.strasberg--- 7.wallace--- 12.c carter--- 17.stubbs
3.alvarez--- 8.smoak--- 13.chapman--- 18.desmond
4.quentin--- 9.posey--- 14.a gordon--- 19.jackson
5.snider--- 10.m taylor--- 15.montero--- 20.s sizemore

gotta take heyward first, not only because the whole world values him that way but because they might be right.......same for strasburg tho i can't see him reaching the hype....you know how i feel about alvarez, tho if you believe in andy laroche lasting the year at third you might want to hold off (lol).....quentin or snider here? -if he gets the whole year in, and either way long term , i prefer snider BUT quentin is safer....rasmus still has upside and a great lineup but is there enough pop?...wallace may not be up for a while tho i think he's ready and looks like a sure bet to be very good for a long time....smoak will mash in arlington and i don't want to miss the boat BUT texas always has too many good looking prospects and few who actually pan out ....so i would probably take the next 2, posey and taylor, higher than him and rasmus but i might not recomend it to others, i just have a real good feeling poseys the next mauer and taylors winfield-lite, but again some things are just gut feelings that are hard to explain...jennings looks like the next crawford - i don't love crawford- i don't like waiting forever for a player to be better than he is....carters lke smoak, will he turn into barton or texiera, i cant get a proper read but there's value there.....i may be wrong but i don't believe in chapmans mechanics, i see years of almost, and like i've said i hate almost...which brings us to gordon.....will montero stay behind the plate? i hear there's a debate, that combined with the yankees ability to be patient tells me late round flyer because he does seem like a special bat....i don't believe in reimold, i think pie will be the starter by years end - i like pie alot if i could gaurantee the power...stubbs has grit and speed, thats one category magic...which brings us to desmond and jackson - tho maybe i'm wrong on jackson, some people really seem to like him .....and lastly sizemore, i don't think he'll make the tigers out of camp and that means waiver wire pickup in a couple months in most leagues, and that's only if you have a need....

well i could be wrong but that's how i feel about things - hope its helpful

Have a question for the round table? Send it to nobrorton@yahoo.ca

The Media Circus: Your guide to avoiding ignorance.

Welcome to the premiere of The Media Circus, a place where we can all vent our frustrations about the horrible people who on a daily basis try to defame and destroy our game with their bias and ignorance.

Like me, you sit on your couch screaming at the t.v. ready to throw objects through the screen, if your t.v. wasn't so damn valuable. Well scream no more, you now officially have a place to, not only vent your frustrations, but also share with other people who are actual fans, not paid talking heads who, not only don't watch as many games as you do, but don't even watch the games they're covering.

So fire away in the comment section and one by one we'll bring the bastards that destroy our game down.

The Joe Mauer deal: Is it really great for baseball?

It seems there is little doubt everywhere I look that Mauers new 8 year 184 million contract is the best thing that could have happened for the Twins AND more importantly for the sport of baseball, and specifically the small market team. Here is a team, just years removed from contraction talk, moving into a beautiful new outdoor ballpark, with a budget now approaching 100 million and their best player and hometown hero locked up for the forseeable future. Fans in New York and Boston, take note, you're not gonna sweep in and get all the best players, the small market teams are taking a stance, and it starts today.

Or at least that seems to be the conventional wisdom, but I have to wonder how much help this really provides for anybody. Make no mistake, Joe Mauer did not take a hometown discount on this deal, which, however you want to break it down, is one of the 5 richest deals in baseball history. Instead I think it might be fair to say this is exactly the sort of deal that handcuffs small market franchises for years to come.

Is it possible that the Twins will get full value for this signing: yes, in baseball terms this amount of money could end up providing relative rewards, but that relative is thanks to the market established by the Bostons and New Yorks having ratcheted up the market on great players to absurd heights. It seems more to me a victory for the big market teams that established a bar so high that the only way the small markets can compete is to empty the coffers on one player, than sit back and cross their fingers.

The biggest mistake here was the Twins lack of foresight in not signing Mauer, hometown wonder-kind, to a long term contract 3 years ago when his talent was no less obvious than it is today. (At that time they signed him to 4 years at 33 million) Keep in mind this extension comes on the heels of his best season to date. And for a catcher. I wont argue that a catcher can't stay in the game, and behind the plate, into his forties, but to stay productive, and I'm talking 23 million dollars a year productive for 150 games a year into his late 30s, certainly remains in doubt, no matter how great Joe Mauer is today, at age 27.

I have to think that ownership in places like Washington and Pittsburgh uttered a collective "fudge" upon seeing the market for their young up and coming stars like Stephen Strasburg and Pedro Alvarez get placed into a stratosphere here-to-for unmatched by all but the most ridiculous overspenders in the game.

As a fan i know I'll be thinking "I hope Travis Snider can become a great player some day, BUT not too great - not 200 million dollars great" because no matter how much I might like a player I dont want my team spending that kind of dough on one guy- it's too risky and too expensive. I've already been priced out of going to too many games myself, and that's to watch a team that never wins , heaven forbid we ever make the playoffs again, because you know that pricetag is being passed along to the fans.

I know its hard to predict where and when to spend your money on young talent. For every Evan Longoria, who the Rays locked up for 6 years at 17.5 million (with 3 club option years at 27 mil. more) after he had played a handful of games, theres an Eric Hinske, who recieved way too much money after a rookie of the year campaign, which turned out to be 14.75 million too rich and 5 years too long.

It's obviously difficult business deciding just who exactly you're going to hand over the keys to your franchise to, but with a little bit of foresight 3 years ago, the Twins could have avoided, not only putting all of their eggs in one basket, but putting every other small market teams eggs in one basket too.

So congratulations Twins fans, you get to keep one of the best players in baseball for the rest of his career but don't count me amongst the fans applauding the Twins for doing what's best for the sport of baseball.

Fan Chat: When are good questions too good?

Good times over at bluejays.com where a fan chat with President Paul Beeston has brought the conspiracy theorists out of the woodwork to accuse the Blue Jays of self generating a series of softball questions for Beeston to swat out of the park.

Any merit to the accusations? Who cares - anything that gets fans talking about baseball is great in my book and it proves once again that the comment section is very often the best part of any article. The commenters do raise one very interesting question, however: when examined closely, what user names don't seem like complete fakes?

Edit: I just checked back on the comments and they're getting funnier every minute.

Joba to the Bullpen

I have to wonder if this came as a surprise to anyone. The day the Yankees traded Melky Cabrera to the Braves for Javier Vazquez, it was obvious there would only be one spot available in the rotation going into this year. Which begged the question: who is more suitable for the bullpen - Joba or Phil Hughes, and who was more suitable for the 5th starters spot?

Considering Joba excelled as the setup man for Rivera when given the chance 2 years ago and Hughes is a former top 5 starting pitching prospect for the Yankees, whose only reason for not being in the rotation already going into this season, is a series of injuries, the answers seem to have already been provided.

The only reason people wanted to ask the question was the much bally-hooed Joba rules, in which the Yanks had spent much of the last 2 years streatching Jobas' arm out, with an eye towards protecting his health in the years to come. Certainly it is worth questioning the validity of the plan but I'm not sure you can question the attempt to make an effort. There's no denying the shear number of pitchers who at some time in their career come down with arm issues.

Which is the best way to insulate a young pitcher from having problems though is very open for debate, and whether the Yankees are right or wrong in their approach dosn't mean they have to keep Joba in the rotation for the next 10 years to try and justify it.

You'll hear a lot of arguments that the 'Joba rules' actually hindered Chamberlians career up to this point, mostly based on the theory that constant pitch counts can mess with a young players head, which seem to have a valid basis in reason, or an argument that I prefer, that it is generally accepted that the only way to strengthen a muscle is to use it. That seems to make a lot of sense on its face, but ultimatly there just isn't enough information out there right now to know for sure one way or the other, and not enough basis in logic to assume New York, and more specificlly, Brian Cashman, are going to spend the rest of their careers trying to prove they could see the future.

From my side of the couch I say the best way to avoid the inevitable is to embrace the inevitable: ergo sever the elbow tendons of every pitching prospect at the age of 22 and perform Tommy John surgery. In fact I'm not a surgeon but i wonder if you'd even have to sever the tendon to perform the surgery. The way I understand it they take a ligament from the leg and, in the past they would double wrap the arm tendon, and today triple wrap the arm tendon, and many players say their arms feel better than ever before.

I say quadrouple wrap 'em, and if you're running short on tendons how about letting fans become doners. I've already donated my remains to, for all I know, cadaver practice at the local doctors university, you don't think i would donate my ligaments for a chance at another Blue Jays World Series? I guarantee I wouldn't be the only one.