Monday, March 29, 2010

The Ghost of Prospects Past: Pittsburgh Pirates

Let's take a look at how to structure a team coming off a 17th consecutive losing season. Of course, we don't have a lot of data to work with as the Pittsbugh Pirates are the only team in the history of North American professional sports franchises to hold this dubious distinction, so I guess we'll start (and finish) there.

The key seems to be to field as many prospects as possible, not neccesarily rescent prospects but a series of high upside players who haven't been able to break into the big leagues over the past few years. Start with a couple homegrown prospects then mix in a handful of former highly projected youngsters from other organizations.

From the Pirates farm Andrew McCutchen gets his chance to build off a great rookie campaign and Pedro Alvarez looks assured of getting his feet wet at some point later this year.

At this point though, Alvarez is being blocked by another rescent prospect, Andy LaRoche, who came over from the Dodgers in the Jason Bay trade and gets the start at third base to open the season. He showed flashes of promise, that went mostly unnoticed, as the Pirates played out the string last September, but the clock might be ticking on his chance to live up to his former top prospect status.

In the outfield, Lastings Milledge, already on his third team after coming over from the Washington Nationals for Nyjer Morgan, looks like he might finally be ready to deliver on his vast potential, while Jeff Clement now mans first after failing to break the Mariners vaunted lineup as the catcher of the future.

With a couple prospects in the outfield and at both infield corners, the middle of the infield was the last need to be addressed, which was done by bringing in 2004 rookie of the year Bobby Crosby and former Cubs farmhand Ronnie Cedeno, who, while going undrafted, did manage to tear up AAA pitching to the tune of a .350 BA over his last 500+ ABs. However, like the rest of the Pittsburgh prospects, he has yet to translate that success to the major league level.

It's an interesting approach to take to rebuilding a team, finding value in players whose shine has worn off but whose ceilings are still high. At the very least until they've been given a chance to prove the scouts right. And what better place to get that chance then in Pittsburgh, where high upside can hide behind low expectations, and no matter what the outcome, is preferable to consistent mediocrity.

The worry, of course, is in throwing your lot in with players other teams have already determined are essentially, worth throwing away. Seattle obviously thinks highly of Rob Moores' future, but after years in their system they pretty much gave up on Clement. The same thing could be said of LaRoche, a 3rd baseman who has so far failed to show the power neccessary from a corner infielder, Crosby, who has never come close to repeating his 21 homer rookie season, or Milledge, whose reputation for being a problem in the clubhouse, while perhaps unfounded, has so far outwieghed any contribution he's been able to make with the bat.

Either way it's a gamble, but at this point gambling on cheap untapped potential while waiting for your homegrown prospects to be ready to make the jump, seems like a pretty good betting strategy. Of course, it's also the sort of plan that could try the patience of Pirates fans, but after 17 years of failed rebuilding projects what's one more.

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